Ed Yardeni
Edward Yardeni is an Israeli American economist. He is the president of Yardeni Research. He is the former chief economist for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.
In 1998, he was named as having done the best job of forecasting the nation's economy for last quarter of 1997 in a semiannual survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal.[1]
In the late 1990s, Yardeni coined Fed model, a disputed theory of equity valuation that compares the stock market's forward earnings yield to the nominal yield on long-term government bonds, and that the stock market – as a whole – is fairly valued, when the one-year forward-looking I/B/E/S earnings yield equals the 10-year nominal Treasury yield; deviations suggest over-or-under valuation. He first used the term when commenting on a report on the July 1997 Humphrey-Hawkins testimony by the then-Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan on equity valuations.[2] In 2014, Yardeni noted that the predictive power of the Fed model stopped working almost as soon as he noted the relationship.[3]
In the lead up to the year 2000, Yardeni predicted that computer problems related to the Year 2000 would lead to a recession that year by disrupting global supply chains, sinking earnings projections for thousands of companies, and bursting the stock market bubble.[4][5] In January 2000, after no major issues occurred, he admitted he had been wrong.[6]
In 2018, Yardeni published Predicting the Markets: A Professional Autobiography.[7]
In 2021, Yardeni published In Praise of Profits![8]
References
[edit]- ^ Street Journal, Fred R. BleakleyStaff Reporter of The Wall (January 2, 1998). "Economist Edward Yardeni Wins Forecasting Honors for Late '97". Wall Street Journal – via www.wsj.com.
- ^ "Burying the "Fed model"". The Economist. 29 November 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
- ^ Yardeni, Dr. Edward (28 April 2014). "The 'Fed Model' Is Better At Predicting Corporate Financial Behavior Than Investment Returns". Business Insider. Retrieved 24 December 2020.
- ^ Feder, Barnaby J. (August 29, 1999). "IN MY... BRIEFCASE: EDWARD YARDENI". The New York Times – via NYTimes.com.
- ^ "Market Analyst Concedes Recession Forecast Wrong". archive.nytimes.com.
- ^ "Market Analyst Concedes Recession Forecast Wrong". archive.nytimes.com.
- ^ "Predicting the Markets: A Professional Autobiography (A review)". 20 July 2018.
- ^ "Profit with Honor". National Review. March 4, 2022.